Spot prices continued their decline, with the import window remaining open [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 9.16

Futures:In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2601 contract opened at 3,012 yuan/mt, hit a high of 3,014 yuan/mt and a low of 3,007 yuan/mt, and ended at 3,009 yuan/mt, down 3 yuan/mt or 0.10%, with open interest at 294,000 lots.

Ore:As of September 15, 2025, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $75.48/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $75/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $70/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Shanxi low-grade bauxite self pick-up price excluding VAT was at 605 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Recently, domestic ore production in north China has not resumed, and supply of domestic ore in the region remains tight, but imported supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall market has not seen a significant gap. At the same time, absolute inventory of domestic bauxite remains high, and with falling alumina prices narrowing profit margins, acceptance of high-priced bauxite has declined. Recently, imported bauxite bulk transactions were sluggish, and the market continues to negotiate ore prices. In the short term, bauxite prices are expected to hold up well.

Spot Prices:As of September 15, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 3,065.43 yuan/mt, down 12.04 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,985.87 yuan/mt, down 18.08 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 3,050.81 yuan/mt, down 6.41 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 3,017.26 yuan/mt, down 9.84 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 3,221.04 yuan/mt, down 9.03 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 3,201.28 yuan/mt, down 9.2 yuan/mt MoM. Today, a spot transaction was inquired in south China, with 5,000 mt of imported alumina port spot cargoes from Vietnam traded at 3,090 yuan/mt. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to continue falling, but the decline is likely to narrow.

Industry News:

• Overseas alumina transaction: On September 15, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at $330/mt FOB Indonesia for September shipment.

• Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) produced 1.14 million mt of alumina at its Taweelah refinery in H1, slightly lower than the same period last year due to supply constraints in Guinea. The company has reached a long-term cooperation agreement with the Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation and plans to build a primary aluminum plant with an annual capacity of 600,000–750,000 mt in Oklahoma, US, which is expected to be operational before 2030. Meanwhile, a secondary aluminum plant in Minnesota completed its expansion to 165,000 mt, and the Taweelah secondary aluminum project in Abu Dhabi reached 72% completion, with operations expected to commence in early 2026.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, as of 11:30 on September 15, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 143.43 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract.

Warrant Daily Report:On September 15, the total registered volume of alumina warrants increased by 12,605 mt from the previous trading day to 151,300 mt. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 0, in Henan remained unchanged at 0, in Guangxi remained unchanged at 600 mt, in Gansu remained unchanged at 0, and in Xinjiang increased by 12,605 mt from the previous trading day to 151,300 mt.

Overseas Market:As of September 15, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $340/mt, the ocean freight rate was $24/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.14. This price translates to a selling price of approximately 3,016.33 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, which is 49.1 yuan/mt lower than the SMM alumina index price, keeping the import window continuously open.

Summary:

Overall, the alumina market remained in a surplus during the period. Supply side, recent increases in domestic alumina operating capacity, coupled with the continuously open import window, have heightened domestic alumina oversupply pressure. Although alumina profit margins have been compressed, there have been no reports of alumina refineries implementing production cuts yet. Demand side, raw material inventories at aluminum smelters remain high, with limited enthusiasm for spot purchases; in south China, the tight supply situation due to production resumptions has eased, reducing the reluctance to budge on prices, while offers in north China continue to trend downward. Overall, spot alumina prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]